As the 2026 FIFA World Cup approaches, analysts are exploring the financial implications for betting operators. While global wagers are projected to hit $50 billion, the actual revenue generated for operators may not be as substantial. Various experts weigh in on customer engagement and the long-term value of this major sporting event, highlighting the balance between short-term gains and sustainable growth.
The upcoming 2026 FIFA World Cup is anticipated to generate an astounding $50 billion in wagers. However, the real question lies in how much of that amount translates into actual revenue for betting operators. Analysts and industry insiders suggest that the value of such a significant sporting event extends beyond immediate financial returns.
As the tournament unfolds across the United States, Mexico, and Canada, operators are gearing up to evaluate whether the World Cup lives up to its commercial potential. The pressing inquiry remains: what is the true worth of these large-scale tournaments once the final whistle blows?
Investment bank Macquarie's projections indicate a staggering amount of global wagers, raising eyebrows about the actual financial benefits for operators like Entain. CEO Stella David, during a recent earnings call, addressed the anticipated revenue from the World Cup, stating, “It’s not as big a thing as you might think. I mean, it’s probably worth about 1% or something like that across the year.” This assertion sparked discussions about the event's overall impact on yearly earnings.
While David's estimate might seem modest, Ed Birkin, managing director of H2 Gambling Capital, argues that major sporting events primarily serve as tools for customer acquisition rather than substantial revenue drivers. He notes that the World Cup accounts for approximately 7% of sports turnover in reporting markets, although this figure can fluctuate based on game outcomes.
Birkin emphasizes that the revenue generated from the World Cup largely depends on the performance of favored teams versus underdogs.
This year marks a significant expansion of the World Cup, with 48 teams participating. This increase not only translates to over 60% more matches but also introduces an element of unpredictability. Some traditional football powerhouses faced off against lesser-known teams, resulting in surprising outcomes. For instance, first-time qualifiers like Cape Verde managed to secure draws against established teams such as Spain and Uruguay.
Chad Beynon, a senior gaming analyst at Macquarie Group, suggests that the tournament's outcome will be pivotal in determining whether operators can maximize their potential. The fate of teams like England could significantly influence betting numbers, with Beynon stating, “If England makes it to the final, then you’re going to see those numbers completely smash what Entain had been saying.”
Several industry experts, including Beynon and Birkin, echo the sentiments of Super Group CEO Neal Menashe, who posited that the early rounds of the tournament could yield mixed results due to mismatches. However, the real value, according to Menashe, lies in the potential for cross-selling between sports betting and casino offerings, which he estimates to be around 60%-70%.
Beynon concurs, remarking, “In terms of iGaming cross-sell, I think that is the ultimate goal.” However, he expresses skepticism about the effectiveness of cross-selling to new customers, as they may not have previously engaged with iGaming platforms.
Birkin raises concerns about the feasibility of extensive cross-selling, particularly in the US, where iGaming expansion has been sluggish. He notes, “In the US, it’s only relevant for five states. Casino is where you monetize players, but I’ve had a few people say to me that this idea that sports betting customers want to go to casino just doesn’t work particularly well.”
For many betting operators, the World Cup may not just be about achieving immediate revenue but rather about establishing long-term customer relationships. Robeson Reeves, CEO of Bally’s Intralot, shared insights during a recent earnings call, indicating that the company would focus on acquiring customers from competitors after the World Cup hype dies down.
This approach aligns with Birkin’s analysis, suggesting that as customer acquisition costs soar during the World Cup, it may be more beneficial to wait for a quieter period to attract new players.
As the World Cup returns to North America for the first time since 1994, the commercial potential is immense. DraftKings, a leading player in the market, is optimistic about the opportunities for customer acquisition. Greg Karamitis, EVP and GM of sports at DraftKings, highlighted the importance of engaging new customers during this period, stating, “We view the World Cup as a significant opportunity to deepen fan engagement.”
Karamitis also noted that DraftKings is strategically positioned to cater to a diverse audience, including Spanish-speaking customers, which is particularly relevant given Mexico's co-hosting role.
With marketing expenditures skyrocketing during major sporting events, some argue that operators may be overreaching. Nonetheless, Birkin suggests that operators have little choice but to invest heavily in marketing to avoid losing market share. He explains, “You’re just going to lose share of voice, so you kind of have to.”
DraftKings acknowledges the rising costs but views them as a necessary investment. Karamitis remarked, “While marketing costs can increase during these periods, acquisition efficiency usually improves, and the scale of engagement makes these events highly attractive investment opportunities.”
Another layer of competition is emerging in the form of prediction markets, which could further complicate the revenue landscape for traditional betting operators. Beynon noted that US prediction markets leader Kalshi handled about $15 billion in wagers in May, primarily from states where sports betting remains illegal. He predicts that traditional sports betting in the US could generate approximately $3 billion during the World Cup, while prediction markets may account for $2 billion.
Birkin believes that while prediction markets might have an impact, their effect on traditional betting revenue will be limited, especially in Europe where they face regulatory challenges.
As the World Cup progresses toward its conclusion, the most significant victory for betting operators may not be immediate profits but rather the ability to cultivate lasting customer loyalty. Beynon emphasizes that sportsbooks typically become profitable on new customers between 12 to 18 months after acquisition.
Karamitis reiterates the importance of executing effectively across various aspects of the tournament, including technology and marketing. He concludes, “Given our proven track record of successfully managing major sporting events, we are confident in our ability to deliver a seamless experience for customers while creating value for stakeholders.”
Comments