Gibraltar has taken a notable step in the gaming industry by licensing Predict Street as its first prediction market operator, a move that promises to reshape the territory's gambling landscape. Minister for Justice, Trade and Industry Nigel Feetham announced this significant development in a parliamentary session, emphasizing the potential for growth in this emerging sector.
Feetham stated, “We expect this to be a substantial area of growth for Gibraltar,” underscoring the importance of the prediction markets vertical. This new license was issued despite the fact that the recent Gambling Act has yet to be implemented, necessitating the issuance under earlier legislation. He noted, “This represents record timing for the issuing of a regulatory license in Gibraltar.”
According to Gibraltar’s gambling license register, Predict Street Ltd was officially licensed as a betting intermediary on March 26 under the 2005 Gambling Act. The company’s website, predictstreet.io, claims to be the official prediction market partner for the upcoming FIFA World Cup in 2026, featuring a countdown to its launch set for April 9. The platform is backed by Abu Dhabi-based blockchain provider ADI Chain.
Gibraltar’s Ability to Adapt
During his address, Feetham pointed out that this move showcases Gibraltar’s capacity to adapt quickly, particularly in light of recent UK gambling tax hikes that have posed challenges to the region’s gaming sector, which predominantly serves the UK market. He remarked, “Since the introduction of the recent UK gambling duty increases, I have taken a more direct responsibility for promoting Gibraltar’s regulatory offering.”
The increased Remote Gaming Duty and Remote Betting Duty, which took effect recently, are expected to have significant financial implications for operators based in Gibraltar, potentially raising their tax rates to between 80% and 100%. Currently, around 3,500 people are directly employed in Gibraltar's gambling sector, which contributes approximately one-third of the territory’s tax revenue.
Feetham previously stated on December 1 that this issue is vital for Gibraltar's economy and may have direct and indirect effects on public revenues.
The Future of Prediction Markets in Europe
Gibraltar stands out as the first market in Europe to license a prediction markets operator. However, Malta has recently announced its intent to develop a regulatory framework for this sector. On March 26, Malta's Economy Minister Silvio Schembri indicated that the country is actively exploring the rapidly growing field of prediction markets, which he believes offers significant innovation opportunities.
He emphasized that any legislative changes must be supported by a clear and forward-looking framework to ensure responsible development at scale. Meanwhile, other markets have adopted a more cautious approach. For example, in the U.S., state gambling regulators have scrutinized prediction markets, while Germany and the Netherlands impose strict regulations against them, often treating them as illegal gambling or unlicensed financial instruments. Notably, leading operator Polymarket has faced barriers in these regions.
Despite these challenges, Ismail Vali, president of RegTech firm Gaming Compliance International (GCI), mentioned that traffic and engagement data indicate that prediction markets continue to attract European users, even amid official bans.
Nicole Macedo
Nicole began her journalism career in local newsrooms in Gibraltar and played a pivotal role in launching the peninsula’s first online-only broadcaster.
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