In December 2024, Singapore banned Polymarket, citing it as an unregulated gambling platform. Despite this, many locals continue to access the site, risking fines and imprisonment. The surge in betting on various events—from sports to mundane weather—raises ethical concerns about prediction markets, especially with ties to significant political events.
In December 2024, Singapore took a firm stance against the prediction market provider Polymarket, officially deeming it an unregulated gambling platform. This action came from the Gambling Regulatory Authority (GRA), which warned users that accessing Polymarket could result in hefty penalties, including fines of up to SG$10,000 and potential imprisonment for six months or both.
While Singapore Pools serves as the sole legal betting avenue for residents, offering options like lotteries and sports betting, an unexpected trend has emerged. Despite the ban, a notable number of Singaporeans have been finding ways to access Polymarket, leading to a surprising spike in wagers. Reports indicate that bets are being placed not only on significant events such as the Singapore Grand Prix or the upcoming 2025 general election but also on everyday occurrences like the weather.
In fact, just this month, the volume of bets on temperature fluctuations in Singapore reached an astonishing SG$127,160 (approximately US$100,000) daily. For instance, on April 17, participants wagered nearly SG$158,725 on whether the temperature would hit 33°C.
The controversies surrounding prediction markets are not limited to Singapore. Globally, platforms like Polymarket have faced scrutiny for suspiciously timed trades, particularly regarding geopolitical events. A striking case involves a trader known as 'Magamyman,' who reportedly made US$550,000 betting on the ousting of Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei mere hours before his assassination. Another bet, made just before a US bombing in Iran, raises ethical questions about insider trading and market manipulation.
Moreover, both Polymarket and Kalshi, another prediction market platform, have connections to influential figures linked to the Trump administration. Donald Trump Jr. serves as an advisor for both platforms, which adds another layer of complexity to the ethical landscape surrounding these markets.
In a related development, Hong Kong has also felt the impact of rising prediction market activities. The government suspended the initiation of legal sports betting following a significant increase in trading volume, which soared to US$64 billion in 2025—an impressive 200% increase from the previous year. Officials acknowledged the need for a comprehensive examination of these emerging platforms in light of such developments.
Similarly, Singaporean authorities continue to emphasize that those who intentionally bypass government restrictions are taking considerable risks. Public reminders from the GRA highlight the seriousness of the situation, urging residents to think twice before accessing banned platforms.
Marjorie Preston began her gaming career in 2007, focusing on Asian gaming markets since 2020. Outside her professional endeavors, she enjoys writing about travel and film and has a passion for playing the drums.
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